The Triangle real estate market is changing

RALEIGH- For those wondering what will happen to the Triangle real estate market the rest of the year, the latest available data from Triangle Multiple Listing Service could suggest a slowdown in the market, at least in terms of price appreciation.

But several real estate agents told WRAL TechWire this week that the market downturn in median home sales prices could have been predicted, and may in fact be a resumption of seasonal trends that have been seen historically.

Yet no one is sure.

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Latest Triangle Real Estate Market Data

Here is the last one:

The median sale price of all homes sold in the Triangle in July 2022 was $420,000, according to data from the Triangle Multiple Listing Service (TMLS) obtained by WRAL TechWire.

This dropped from $421,706 in June 2022.

And the median selling price fell in both Wake County and County Durham – around 5%, in Durham from the previous month.

Here’s the difference: The median selling price of a home in County Durham in June 2022, out of 552 completed transactions, was $430,000, according to TMLS data. But in July, the median sale price fell to $410,600, with 443 deals completed.

And in Wake County, the median sale price in July 2022 was $490,000 out of 1,703 closed deals, compared to $493,081 in June out of 1,970 closed deals.

But median sale prices rose in Johnston County and Chatham County. Chatham County median home sales prices soared in July, up more than 10% from the previous month.

Median home sales prices in Johnston County rose from $375,000 in June to $380,000 in July, and in Chatham County the median home sales price is now $662,500, down from $600. $500 in June. The median home sale price in Chatham County in May, however, was $650,750, the previous high mark in the TMLS dataset.

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What does it all mean

“This year is very strong,” said Seth Gold, licensed real estate agent and broker with Bold Real Estate and Governors Club Realty, specializing in homes in Chatham County and the Triangle. “But we’re starting to see a bit of a change.”

Still, Gold said, July is generally a slower month in terms of sales volume and buyer demand, historically.

It’s just that it didn’t happen in July 2020 or July 2021 as the housing market was hot due to low inventory, high buyer demand and ongoing changes in home buying and migration that have led the Triangle to be among the hottest housing markets in the country, Gold said.

“What we’re seeing is price appreciation plateauing,” said Tony Fink, a licensed realtor and REALTOR® at Linda Craft & Team REALTORS in Raleigh. “What was expected.”

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While most real estate metrics released to the public are actually retrospective, Fink noted in the interview, it’s entirely possible we’re seeing a slowdown in price appreciation.

That’s not to say it’s a bad thing, though, Fink noted.

“We’re seeing a higher percentage of home sales at or below list price,” Fink said. “These are signs of a healthy market, no stress, given where we come from, which was a very supply constrained market at the start of 2022 and throughout 2021.”

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So… what’s next for the Triangle real estate market?

Overall, Gold said, buyer confidence in the economy could change.

“People are getting a little more reserved,” Gold said.

This is due to ongoing concerns about the future direction of the local, state and national economy, and recent volatility in mortgage interest rates, which have actually fallen for two consecutive weeks and fallen below 5% for the first time since April for the week. ending August 4, according to the latest data from Freddie Mac.

But those shifts to greater buyer bookings won’t impact the market in the long run, Gold said. There is growth ahead in the Triangle, he noted, including technology companies, life science companies, and of course, VinFast’s decision to build its 4-story automotive assembly plant. billion in Chatham County, where it this week bought the land on which it will build the plant for nearly $44 million.

“These types of companies don’t just pick a location for no reason and have significant money and resources going where they want to land,” Gold said. “This should add a ton of confidence to buyers in our marketplace.”

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Price appreciation slows, but not home values

While there may be signs of a market slowdown, that slowdown may be a return to seasonal norms, Fink noted.

“I don’t think that’s a bad thing,” Fink said. “Seasonality went out the window in 2020, because of COVID.”

One of the things that happened in the 2020 and 2021 markets is that price appreciation continued as stocks remained suppressed and immigration continued to the Triangle, noted Fink.

“The agents representing the sellers had a hard time predicting what would happen in the market,” Fink said. That’s why there have been bidding wars for homes, including many homes that sold for more than $100,000 above asking price earlier this year.

But seasonality could return, with a peak of activity expected in the fall, in September and October, when buyers may find it best to buy, a slowdown in the holidays, and then another peak in the spring between April. and late June, Fink said.

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